Chief Investment Strategist, The Freeport Society
Last week, Robert F. Kennedy ended his campaign and officially threw his weight behind Donald Trump.
Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman, recently endorsed Trump as well. (Both are reportedly going to serve on Trump’s “transition team”… whatever that means.)
If you don’t remember who Tulsi Gabbard is… don’t feel bad. She had her proverbial 15 minutes of fame four years ago as a presidential candidate and then mostly faded into obscurity. I’m not sure what her endorsement accomplished other than, perhaps, suggesting to Trump that she’d like a cushy Cabinet post if he wins. Still, it’s another name in his favor.
On the other side of the crocodile pit, more than 200 Republicans who worked for George W. Bush, Senator Mitt Romney, and the late Senator John McCain threw their hats into Kamala Harris’s camp.
Personally, I don’t care who endorses who.
If Curly decides to endorse Larry over Moe or Moe over Larry, it’s still a case of stooges endorsing stooges. And let’s be clear, both Trump and Harris have gone out of their way to prove their stooge bona fides… making an election shock inevitable.
Also worth noting is that many of Kennedy’s voters were protest voters. They never expected him to win… so many were likely indifferent to his actual policy views. They simply supported him as a way of thumbing their noses at Harris and Trump. With him now out of the race, they may vote Libertarian, Green, or not at all.
Of course, those who truly believed in Kennedy and supported his policy views – particularly his environmental advocacy – might find the Trump camp to be a little less than friendly.
But in an election that will ultimately be decided by a small handful of swing voters in an even smaller handful of swing states, if even a modest number of RFK’s voters follow his lead and cast a ballot for Trump, it could end up deciding the election.
Let’s take a closer look at those numbers…
The Way the Math Works Out
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are critical this November. The way the math works out, neither Trump nor Harris has a realistic path to the presidency without that state. Or at least not as things stand now.
Today, the election betting markets put Trump ahead by exactly 1% – 50.5% to 49.5% – in Pennsylvania. The average of the major polls gives Harris an advantage of the same 1% margin in Pennsylvania – 49% to 48%.
But whether we’re looking at the betting markets or the polls, we get a similar story: With 69 days until November 5, the race is far too close to call in the only state that actually matters.
It might sound trite to say that every vote counts. Well, Pennsylvania has 8.7 million registered voters. A 1% margin means 87,000 voters. So, while it’s unlikely that the selection of our next president literally comes down to a single vote, we’re still talking about a very small margin here.
And there’s still plenty of time for the wheels to fall off of an already wobbly economy.
As I wrote yesterday, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates next month, but we should be careful what we wish for. The Fed doesn’t cut interest rates when everything is hunky-dory. It cuts rates when it’s concerned. And it only cuts aggressively when it’s really concerned.
The job market hasn’t shown signs of breaking down just yet. But we’re definitely starting to see cracks forming. Just this month, we’ve seen significant layoffs in companies as diverse as CarMax (KMX), General Motors (GM), Mastercard (MA), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Paramount Global (PARA), among others.
And earlier this year, Dell (DELL), Intel (INTC), and Tesla (TSLA) laid off 20%, 15%, and 10% of their workforces, respectively.
So, what does any of this have to do with the election?
Everything.
In a razor-thin contest, even a slight change in sentiment can swing the results and trigger a major election shock. The market is priced for a particular election outcome. But as I wrote yesterday, regardless of who you favor, there’s a contrarian bet forming, and that’s where the money will be made.
I’ll have more details about the election shock we’re anticipating later in the week. Keep your eyes peeled.
To life, liberty and the pursuit of wealth.