Chief Investment Strategist, The Freeport Society
The legendary New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra reminded us that it’s difficult to make predictions… especially about the future. But what is life without a few challenges?
Today, let’s read the proverbial tea leaves and make a few predictions about the remainder of the year…
More importantly, let’s consider where we should invest next.
First up…
More Debt!
You don’t need to be Nostradamus to get this one. As easily as I can predict that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow, I can predict that our national debt will continue to snowball throughout the second half of the year and that we’ll finish 2024 roughly $2 trillion deeper in the hole.
As I write this, the national debt stands at just over $35 trillion. There’s no scenario in which tax revenues materially increase or expenditures materially decrease between now and December 31. So, given the rate at which Uncle Sam is borrowing and spending, we can assume that the national debt will stack up to around $37 trillion by then.
If the economy were to take a turn for the worse, it’s not impossible that tax revenues could fall a little… pushing the debt even higher.
And spending could surge if we get dragged into a war in the Middle East… which, given recent escalations, we can’t rule out.
But there’s really no mechanism in which the fiscal position improves.
I can’t tell you what the price of Bitcoin or an ounce of gold will be on December 31. But I can tell you that owning dollar hedges like these is a no-brainer.
Next…
More Election Chaos!
If I had written this a week ago, I would have told you that Donald Trump will be our next president. He was riding high after his near-death experience and, for the first time in the eyes of a lot of Americans, looked truly human. The election was his to lose… and virtually all polls and the betting markets had him winning easily.
Game over.
And then it got interesting.
President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, throwing his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris. The floodgates of campaign contributions burst open. Suddenly, the Democratic base appeared as energized as the Republican one. The polls tightened to a statistical dead heat.
Betting markets are still forecasting a Trump victory… so, until that changes, I’m going to plan for that.
But it’s going to be a proper race now… and a lot can happen between now and November 5. Actually, given the events of the last presidential election, a lot can happen after November 5.
You know my view. In every way that truly matters, we’re screwed regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins. Neither has a viable plan to balance the budget, reduce debt, stabilize Social Security, or tame the military-industrial complex.
Both have us on an express train to financial ruin.
They’ve framed this election as a defense of democracy itself, so it’s going to be exceptionally hard for either side to concede defeat… and even harder to convince a radicalized pitchfork mob to stand down.
So, expect these next six months to be chaotic… and be willing to trade the volatility.
Finally…
Change of Market Leadership
Finally, expect a change of market leadership… which is already well underway.
Consider the shares of 2024’s darling, AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA). As you can see in the chart, after more than tripling year-to-date, Nvidia is now down about 26% from its highs..
Over the long term, owning Big Tech is a no-brainer. These are the companies making the exponential progress of the capitalist system possible. But everything has a price… and this particular trade got crowded.
And so, over the past few weeks, we’ve seen a rotation from large-cap tech stocks into small- and mid-cap ones. Some of this is the “Trump Trade” in the belief that a new Republican administration will have policies that are more favorable to small- and medium-sized companies.
But interestingly, as Harris’ prospects have improved, this rotation hasn’t gone into reverse. This tells me that this trend is likely going to continue regardless of who wins in November.
I take Yogi Berra’s warnings about predictions seriously. I don’t want my returns to depend on my ability to guess correctly about wildly uncertain future events.
I prefer to follow the money.
That’s the philosophy behind my Freeport Alpha service… and our ticket to navigating the chaos that lies ahead.
I recommend it be yours as well.
You can find out more about how we do this in Freeport Alpha by watching this video.
To life, liberty and the pursuit of wealth.