Chief Investment Strategist, The Freeport Society
Remember all those crazy photos of Javier Milei, with his wild hair and lambchop sideburns, revving a chainsaw?
He wasn’t moonlighting as a logger… he was loudly making a metaphor for what he promised to do to the Argentine state. And incredibly, as president since December, he’s actually delivered on that promise.
For the first time in 12 years, Argentina passed a monthly budget surplus in January, Milei’s first full month as president. February numbers aren’t available yet.
We’re not talking rounding error here. The state finances were in the black by 518.41 billion pesos, or about $589 million. And that figure isn’t accounting trickery or a “primary” budget surplus. The figure includes interest payments on the public debt.
Now, one month in the black doesn’t undo decades of poor fiscal management. Argentina still has a long way to go. But it’s a start… and it’s proof that it’s possible.
So, how exactly did “El Loco” do it?
It’s really not rocket science. He just spent less money.
But isn’t that what any normal family does when their budget periodically gets out of control?
Sure, I’ve had months or even years where things didn’t quite go my way and I had to dip into saving or even borrow.
It happens.
But when it does, I tighten the belt, cut my spending, or even look for extra income. And most years, I run a “budget surplus.” I’m sure you do, too.
So, if we’re expected to live within our means… why exactly does our government get to consistently spend more than it takes in?
Our budget deficit was $1.6 trillion last year. That’s trillion… with a “t.” That’s roughly the size of the entire Australian economy and considerably larger than the GDP of either Spain or Mexico.
Yes, the amount of money our government borrows on an annual basis – just that part of its spending that is larger than its tax receipts – is larger than the entire economies of many of our friends and trading partners.
And it’s not trending the right direction. The Congressional Budget Office – the folks that would have every incentive to make the deficit look smaller than it is – forecast annual deficits of between $1.6 trillion and $2.6 trillion every year for the next 10 years.
Of course, more than half of the budget deficit is just interest. And the more we borrow, the larger the interest payments become as a percentage of the total. Already, we spend about as much on interest as we do on the military. And again, that number continues to snowball…
At Least the Government Shutdown Isn’t Happening?
You might have seen the news that the Senate and House passed a stopgap measure Thursday to keep the government operational and prevent a partial government shutdown before the deadline.
We’ve seen this movie before.
Congress loudly threatens a government shutdown unless some frivolous demand is met. Sometimes they actually follow through on the threat, actually shutting the government down. The last one was in the winter of 2018.
You might assume, given my judgmental finger wagging over deficit spending, that I’d be in favor of government shutdowns.
Well, they sound great in theory, but they don’t accomplish anything of substance. There’s no appreciable difference in overall spending, and all the expenses that get put on hold during the shutdown end up getting paid once the government reopens.
All the shutdowns manage to do is ruin a few vacations due to national park closures and make the government look incompetent. (Not that they need much help with that…)
If our leaders were serious about wanting to get spending under control… then they would get spending under control. Congress controls the purse strings. They have the ability – the responsibility, in fact – to tell the executive branch what it’s allowed to spend.
That’s literally their job. It just seems that they’re really bad at it.
I’d love to tell you I see it getting better. But both leading candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, are collectively responsible for the biggest orgy of deficit spending in peacetime American history. Expecting meaningful reform from either of these men is to ask to be disappointed.
Alas, Milei is not eligible to run for president of the United States. No one will be taking a chainsaw to Washington any time soon.
We’ll eventually have a bona fide dollar crisis, which is why we actively look for safe alternatives to the dollar in The Freeport Investor.
In fact, Freeport Investor members already have several dollar protection investments in the model portfolio… and we’ll be adding more in the upcoming monthly issue. To make sure you’re on the list to get that issue are, plus the other stocks we’re holding in preparation for the November elections, watch this presentation now.
To life, liberty, and the pursuit of wealth…