Editor’s Note: Beware the dog days of summer. Maybe it’s because half of Wall Street is on vacation. Or maybe it’s because August tends to deliver geopolitical shocks – from the 1990 Gulf War to the 2021 fall of Afghanistan. Whatever the reason, the pattern is clear: Volatility tends to spike in August.
And knowing that gives you an edge.
Even more powerful?
Knowing which stocks follow seasonal patterns – and how likely they are to repeat them.
That’s where the team at TradeSmith comes in. Their AI-powered seasonality tool runs 50,000 tests a day to identify when stocks are most likely to experience bullish tailwinds… and when they’re facing strong headwinds.
Freeport Society co-founder Louis Navellier recently joined TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan for a special broadcast revealing how this technology works – and the names of several stocks about to enter their most bullish stretch of the year. Watch the broadcast while it’s still online — it won’t be available much longer.
As a loyal Freeport Navigator reader, here’s one stock I can share now: Apple (AAPL).
It reports earnings July 31. And over the past 15 years, according to TradeSmith’s seasonality tool, AAPL has delivered an average 4.55% gain between August 6 and September 15, rising in 13 of those 15 years.
It’s not alone.
There’s another asset – a metal that powers tech giants like Apple – that’s about to enter a seasonally strong period.
In the essay below, fellow libertarian and globetrotting investor James Hickman explains what it is (and why demand is about to spike).
James is the co-founder of Schiff Sovereign, a lifelong entrepreneur, and investor who’s traveled to more than 120 countries on all seven continents. He’s started, invested in, or acquired businesses all over the world.
Take it away, James.
Why Apple Will Pay Anything for This Crucial iPhone Metal
By James Hickman, Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign
We’ve all heard the legend…
There was a beautiful girl, kidnapped… a thousand ships launched… and the mightiest warriors of the ancient world descended upon the city of Troy to win her back.
Obviously this was all a myth.
But Troy itself existed.
And the Trojan War very likely happened as well. Though not over some pretty girl.
Instead, the Trojan War likely started as a dispute over scarce resources – then quickly escalated to a full blown shooting (or stabbing/slashing) war.
And the scarce resource in question?
Tin.
Back in the Bronze Age when the Trojan War was likely fought, tin was the technological linchpin of ancient civilization. Without it, there was no bronze – and thus, none of the era’s best weapons and tools.
Copper was the other half of the chemical formula, i.e. tin + copper = bronze.
The Greeks had plenty of copper mines. But the tin component was very scarce – and distant. It came all the way from Central Asia, hauled across the Black Sea, and through the narrow strait called the Dardanelles (modern day Turkey) into the Mediterranean.
And that was only if Troy – the city perched strategically at the mouth of the Dardanelles – allowed the ships to pass.
This meant that whoever controlled Troy controlled the Greeks’ access to tin. So it’s easy to see why they probably fought a war over it.
This type of resource competition is common throughout history. But it’s a lesson that has been forgotten over the past 80 years in which global trade has been open, cooperative, and free.
Today that comity is rapidly deteriorating. Given the trade wars, regional shooting wars, and increasing global tensions, access to certain resources and real assets can no longer be taken for granted.
Some of these are obvious. Oil prices, for example, regularly gyrate based on the potential for supply disruptions. And despite the Left’s absurd fantasies about wind and solar, oil is going to remain critical to modern civilization for the foreseeable future.
But with nuclear energy emerging as a clear solution to provide cheap, clean energy, uranium – whose production is highly concentrated across just a handful of countries – may become a new conflict point.
Other resources are less obvious and take a little bit more digging to understand their importance in the global economy and their scarcity.
And that includes the forgotten ancient metal tin.
Tin is the glue that holds the modern world together… almost literally.
More than 50% of all tin demand today comes from solder, which is used to connect the billions of components on electronic circuit boards. Without solder, there are no smartphones, no electric vehicles, no AI computer chips, no cloud servers, no missile guidance systems.
The more technology progresses, the more tin is needed. AI growth alone is expected to double tin demand between now and 2028.
Yet tin is an incredibly small market. Only around $12.5 billion worth was produced last year. Given that the worldwide commodities trade is more than $6-plus trillion per year, the tin market is less than a rounding error. It’s minuscule.
This creates an odd situation. While tin is a critical part of the iPhone, for example, only a few cents worth goes into each unit. And this is typical across the electronics industry.
So the price of tin could increase 5x or 10x, yet the impact on Apple’s bottom line would be negligible – maybe 50 cents more per phone.
Apple would still pay for tin at 10x the price. So would every other tech manufacturer.
In other words, if tin supply tightens, buyers won’t blink… but investors will make a fortune.
And supply is tightening.
Classic tin-producing regions have gone offline or become politically unstable.
With supply tightening and demand rising, just one major Western producer is left to pick up the slack.
Production has been kept artificially low for years as Cold War strategic stockpiles were drawn down. But those stockpiles are now depleted.
There is also no substitute metal. And no feasible way to do without it.
Yet demand continues rising – steadily, predictably – year after year.
That means a critical metal is hiding in plain sight, where even a modest supply crunch could generate enormous returns.
To your freedom,
James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign